Insights
Our team of expert economists, researchers and strategists bring clarity to the latest market trends and developments that matter
Past Peak Momentum
30th July 2021 After a furious economic rebound in the first half of 2021, with strongly rising economic growth and inflation rates along with government bond yields, we have now entered a period of consolidation.
Equities Face More Moderate Path Ahead
14th July 2021 Equity market returns have moderated somewhat over recent weeks as the US economy has shifted from an early-cycle re-acceleration phase to a more moderate stage.
CIO Update: Welcome to the Consolidation Phase
8th July 2021 The recovery phase is over and we are now in a consolidation period. Risk assets remain well supported and interest rates are also likely to rise again after a pause.
Moving Away from Ultra-Loose Policy
22nd June 2021 With the worst of the pandemic behind us and the unfolding of a strong global economic recovery, central banks have started their long march towards policy normalisation.
Global View Q3 2021
15th June 2021 The global economic recovery is set to gain more traction in the second half of 2021 as economies reopen and the global services sector comes back online. We expect inflation to move higher as central banks are delivering on their promise not to remove monetary accommodation prematurely.
Q2 2021 Investment Outlook
23rd April 2021 In our latest Q2 2021 Investment Outlook video, CIO Philipp Bärtschi discusses the recent strong economic data, and his views on what this means for markets and asset classes.
Higher Volatility Ahead for Fixed Income
8th April 2021 The expected improvement in global growth will intensify the debate about the timeline for the removal of monetary accommodation in the Developed Markets’ (DM) rate space.
A Rising Yet Bumpy Path Ahead
30th March 2021 Equity markets have been in a goldilocks environment in recent months. The combination of rising inflation expectations and falling real yields has supported earnings expectations on the one hand and valuations on the other.
The Return of Inflation
16th March 2021 Inflation is back on investors’ radars. Commodity prices have increased sharply over the last several months and emerging bottlenecks across supply chains should cause producer prices to rise more rapidly over the next few months.
Fed and ECB Operate On Different Timelines
23rd July 2021 We expect that the FOMC meeting next week is unlikely to provoke the same market reaction as last month’s meeting.
Busy Days at the ECB
16th July 2021 Having finished its strategy review last week and having decided to formally investigate launching a digital euro this week, the ECB has again a busy week ahead.
Forecast Update: Global Inflation Risks Continue to Build
9th July 2021 Global economic growth has probably passed its peak and is no longer accelerating but we remain constructive about the macro outlook.
Going Digital – Central Banks and Finance in Transition
2nd July 2021 In less than two weeks, the European Central Bank will decide whether to explore the potential design of a digital euro further. If approved, it would decide again after two years whether to enter the next phase lasting approximately three years that would be needed to prepare the implementation of a digital euro.
A More Hawkish Fed Should Flatten the Yield Curve
25th June 2021 Chair Powell and Vice Chair Williams reassured markets earlier this week that their view on the economy and the Fed’s new reaction function had not changed.
CIO Update: What if Inflation is Not Transitory?
10th June 2021 Financial markets have performed well this year. While rising stock prices surprised many investors last year, they are in line with positive economic growth this year. The pandemic seems to be more or less behind us and there are only a few clouds on the horizon. One risk that should not be ignored, however, is inflation.
Trend Reversals in Fixed Income Markets Ahead
18th June 2021 The consensus among Fed officials regarding underlying inflationary pressures appears to be eroding. The new more hawkish dot plot and macro projections suggest the FOMC is more explicitly acknowledging the upside risks to inflation.
Emerging Markets Equities Look More Attractive Again
11th June 2021 The macro outlook in Europe looks brighter than we had previously expected and we have revised up our GDP growth numbers for 2021 for the euro area, Switzerland and the UK.
CIO Update: What if Inflation is Not Transitory?
10th June 2021 Financial markets have performed well this year. While rising stock prices surprised many investors last year, they are in line with positive economic growth this year. The pandemic seems to be more or less behind us and there are only a few clouds on the horizon. One risk that should not be ignored, however, is inflation.
The Tapering Debate: The Fed and the ECB Are Facing Different Realities
4th June 2021 Is this another example of ‘dogs that bark don’t bite’? The ECB has clearly scheduled quarterly dates for a discussion about the amount of its regular bond purchases.
CIO Update: Peak Growth
12th May 2021 With the imminent transition from the economic acceleration phase to a moderation phase, the outlook for financial markets remains fundamentally positive.
No Direction Home
28th May 2021 This week the Swiss government decided not to continue negotiations with the EU on an institutional framework for their bilateral relationship.
Times to Remain Cautious
21st May 2021 The US equity market has basically flat-lined over the past 5 weeks and is trading around 2% below the peaks it has reached at the beginning of May.
Consumer Price Inflation – Asset Price Moderation
14th May 2021 US consumers flocked back to stores in April and helped inflation data to come in well above consensus estimates.
Central banks starting to cruise at different speeds
7th May 2021 Yesterday’s decision of the Bank of England to reduce its monthly purchase volume is a timely wake-up call that monetary policy is past its most expansionary period.
Confidence comes back with higher vaccination rates
30th April 2021 US-consumer confidence rose strongly in April and the perception of the state of the labour market has improved dramatically according to the latest Conference Board survey.
Central banks are not yet ready to phase out asset purchases
23rd April 2021 Strong economic data over the past few months, continued fiscal support and vaccination progress naturally make market participants wonder when central banks will start phasing out their asset purchases....
On the cusp to normalisation
16th April 2021 The slow vaccination rollout in the EU continues to weigh on the region’s economic outlook. This should change in the months ahead...
Green Shoots Everywhere
15th April 2021 The month of April is known in Switzerland for choppy weather. This year, too, summery days were followed shortly by wintry snow showers. In the end, however, spring will prevail with warmer weather. The global economy is also going up and down due to COVID-19 lockdowns.
Interest rates become less of a headwind for risk assets
9th April 2021 Gold is the worst performing commodity and real estate one of the worst performing equity sectors since the beginning of the year – a period during which rising inflation expectations drove markets...
Time for a break
26th March 2021 The remarkable run of equity markets over the past year has pushed global cyclicals to record highs...
The Fed holds the line
19th March 2021 Wednesday’s dovish Fed meeting has led bond investors to price additional inflationary risks over the next several years...
The US economy roars ahead – our monthly forecast update
12th March 2021 We have revised our 2021 US GDP growth forecast up to 6.9%, from 6%, as President Biden has delivered fully on the pace and size of his fiscal relief package...
CIO Update: Fortunately, interest rates are rising
11th March 2021 It is hard to believe that one year has already passed since the lockdowns first began. The good news is there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel, with case counts and hospitalizations plummeting.
Global View Q2 2021
9th March 2021 The global economy is set to improve markedly in the second half of 2021 as the negative impact of the COVID pandemic fades and the global services sector comes back online.
Increasing bond yields – a new challenge for central banks
5th March 2021 The upward pressure on bond yields is not only weighing on financial markets, it is also a concern for central banks that do not want to see a premature tightening of financing conditions...
Global reflation proceeds
26th February 2021 Mirroring higher vaccination rates and the prospect for a stronger fiscal impulse, economic indicators this week improved more strongly in the US than in continental Europe...
A bumpy road ahead – lessons from the ‘taper tantrum’
19th February 2021 We look back at the ‘taper tantrum’ episode in 2013, when Fed comments led to a sharp increase in US real rates and a broad sell-off in risk markets...
Locked down and waiting for the second quarter to come up
12th February 2021 This winter feels longer than usual. It thus might seem strange to see investors worry about financial markets running hot and that an overheating economy could lead inflation to overshoot this year...
CIO Update: Onwards and Upwards
11th February 2021 One of the most important skills for successful investors is to distinguish the essential market information from the rest, the so-called noise. In this sense, the media story of retail investors banding together on social media to fight hedge funds falls into the noise category. ..
Inflation is coming back and here to stay
5th February 2021 After experiencing an almost perfect combination of falling real rates and rising macro momentum over recent months, the road ahead for global equities has narrowed...
Reflationary efforts and where to hide when it comes
29th January 2021 The economy has rarely been as divided as it is now – with a strong manufacturing sector that is further stimulated by global trade and a services sector that is suffering from COVID-related restrictions....
Monitoring the Rebound in Inflation
22nd January 2021 Financial markets are once again in a Goldilocks-scenario: expansionary fiscal policy and high household savings trigger expectations of a strong rebound in economic growth once COVID-related restrictions can be lifted...
CIO Update: Follow the trends
15th January 2021 If I had to sum up the year 2020 in three words, they would be: unexpected, extreme, and exciting. At the beginning of the year, we were all taken completely by surprise by a global pandemic in the middle of a positive sentiment. As a result, we experienced extreme movements in financial markets within a short period of time and unprecedented economic lockdowns.
Our new macro and market forecasts including a new US-fiscal package
15th January 2021 December seems to be a long time ago considering what has happened since first we presented our forecasts for this year and next...
Hope prevails
8th January 2021 Despite the shocking pictures from Washington D.C. this week, we remain hopeful for the US economy. This view is only partly based on the solid economic data reported over recent days...
Trust and the success of populism
18th December 2020 As you may remember from previous years, shortly before the holiday season, we try not to bother you with economic data and financial market views in our last Weekly of the year...
Well calibrated but slightly underwhelming ECB package
11th December 2020 Parents know that the best way to ensure a positive surprise and a happy face on their kids’ birthdays is to pretend to having forgotten it in the days prior, or at least having lost their whish list. Central banking is not that different....
Outlook 2021: Solid economic rebound to favour risk assets
4th December 2020 Unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, which has been deployed to fight the negative impact from the pandemic, will continue to drive the global economic expansion in 2021...
Global View 2021 Outlook
1st December 2020 The COVID pandemic and resulting restrictions are set to weigh on the global economy over the winter months. Yet the breakthrough to an effective vaccine, sets the stage for a broader global economic recovery in 2021, which will be supported by generous fiscal transfers and monetary accommodation.
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Read more about our pioneering thought leadership and research on investing sustainably
Corporate Behaviour in a Pandemic
7th July 2021 As governments introduced restrictions to economic activity to prevent the spread of COVID-19 infections in 2020, they simultaneously provided support to company balance sheets.
EU Action Plan Triggers Sustainable Consequences
29th June 2021 A new market standard signals the emergence of a distinct product class.
Pesticides - Efficiency Booster or Biodiversity Killer?
3rd June 2021 Around a million plants and species are currently threatened by extinction. The loss of biodiversity compromises the natural benefits provided by our ecosystem, such as pollination of fruit and crops by bees.
Aligning Real Estate with the Paris Agreement
19th May 2021 The financial risks of climate change are growing everyday along with the constantly rising level of CO2 emissions. The real estate sector is one of the key contributors to climate change, therefore, it is also a primary target for climate change mitigation and regulations aiming to reduce emissions.
Equity Investing and Natural Capital
12th May 2021 A large share of the world economy relies on natural capital. Since 1970, our ecological footprint has exceeded the Earth’s rate of regeneration. We look at the related risks and opportunities for equity investors.
Engaging for Biodiversity: Cocoa and Cobalt
4th May 2021 Our new topical engagement themes focus on addressing several environmental and social issues associated with the extraction and processing of cobalt and cocoa.
Integrating Biodiversity in the Investment Process
29th April 2021 Biodiversity ensures natural sustainability for all life forms while boosting the efficiency and productivity of ecosystems. Humanity’s economic activities impact the diversity of species, but at the same time, our economy relies heavily on it.
Joining the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative
21st April 2021 J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management is proud to announce that we have joined the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative, in support of our existing Climate Pledge aiming for a carbon-neutral outcome in assets under management (AuM) by 2035.
Biodiversity as a Vital Component in ESG Analysis
13th April 2021 The pioneering Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity clearly highlights the immeasurable value of nature and the enormous economic consequences of its destruction. Likewise, this has an impact on investment outcomes, and as such, J. Safra Sarasin integrates various biodiversity factors into its overall investment process.
Sustainable Funds Comply with SFDR Disclosures
12th April 2021 We are therefore pleased to announce that all of J. Safra Sarasin's EU sustainable funds will be classified under Article 8. In addition, four of our funds will be classified under Article 9.
Biodiversity and its Materiality for Investors
29th March 2021 "Biodiversity loss is among the top global risks to society according to the World Economic Forum. In what scientists call the Anthropocene – the age of mankind – the planet is facing its sixth mass extinction, this time caused by humans.
The World's Carbon Budget
24th March 2021 The cyclical upswing we are currently in is creating additional demand for commodities and is also pushing up oil prices and oil stocks. But the securities of companies with exposure to fossil fuels carry long-term risks. These arise not so much from a possible scarcity of fossil resources, but rather from a shortage of the earth's atmosphere's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide emissions.
How to Tap Green Revenues As Opportunities
3rd February 2021 Political pressure and the demand for solutions to the enormous ecological problems are steadily growing. We see “green revenues” as opportunities to invest in and incorporate them systemically into our investment process.
Assessing Corporate Alignment With the Paris Accord
28th January 2021 Ever since the previous Bank of England governor Mark Carney's speech in 2015, which introduced the notion of climate-related risks, investors have scrambled to integrate this issue into their investment decisions.
Three Avenues of Reflecting Climate Change in Portfolios
20th January 2021 Given the long-term economic impact, climate change is becoming recognized as a significant risk in investment portfolios. We provide a framework on how to integrate climate change into investment decisions.
The Climate Transition: High Noon for Investors
4th January 2021 "We only have 7 years left until global warming reaches 1.5°C." This is the sober, albeit abridged, conclusion of the scientific studies of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Achieving the UN SDGs with Real Estate
30th November 2020 Real estate plays an important role in our transition to a greener and more sustainable future. For us, the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) serve as a valuable framework to help achieve positive impact during the entire life cycle of properties.
How Biodiversity's Loss Can Cost Investors
26th November 2020 Biodiversity has recently become the new buzzword in the world of sustainable finance. When most of us think of biodiversity, what comes to mind are usually pictures of threatened animals. However, few of us are able to truly grasp the meaning of biodiversity and its impacts on our lives.
The UN SDGs: Impact or Opportunity?
23rd November 2020 Since the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were introduced and raised onto the global political agenda, it has served as a guiding framework for many sustainable investors. However, some of the most hotly debated issues about this topic revolve around whether investors can truly make a positive impact to achieving the SDGs. In this video, we discuss the differences between impact and sustainable investing, and how investing in public markets can contribute to the SDGs.
Green Real Estate Funds:
Providing a Future-Fit Portfolio while Reducing Carbon Emissions
19th November 2020 This case study provides a roadmap derived from sustainable real estate funds with direct holdings. The author describes how to actively manage properties of an investment fund based on a strategy that has provided attractive financial returns over the years, while successfully reducing carbon emissions.
Systematic Integration of the UN SDGs into the Investment Processes
16th November 2020 As founding signatories of both the Principles for Responsible Investments and the Principles for Responsible Banking, we have made a commitment to include SDG considerations in our business decisions. The following article describes our approach in including SDG data and criteria into our sustainable investment process, as well as our ESG (environmental, social, governance) reporting and active ownership activities.
Engagement: COVID-19 Shifts the Focus
29th October 2020 With the disruption caused by the COVID-19 crisis, “social” considerations are back at the forefront of ESG. While corporates work to navigate near-term challenges, it is important to keep in mind that decisions affecting a company's human capital, customers, and the communities in which they operate can have lasting implications, both positive and negative.
Key Principles of Impact Investing
16th October 2020 The sharp rise in demand for sustainable investments over the last decade can be explained by the fact that investors increasingly require their investments to meet social and environmental goals, in addition to generating financial returns. They not only want to know where their money is invested, but whether it also creates an impact.
Aligning Real Estate with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C Scenario
5th October 2020 In President von der Leyen’s State of the Union address at the European Parliament Plenary, she outlined a vision for the real estate sector to emerge out of the current pandemic more resilient against an even greater looming crisis: climate change.
Targeting the UN SDG: Impact or Opportunity?
30th September 2020 The year 2015 has gone down in history as the "Bretton Woods" of sustainability. In that year, the two frameworks of the Paris climate agreement and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) were raised onto the global political agenda.
Do Airlines Have A Carbon Problem?
24th September 2020 The airline industry faces its worst downturn in recorded history and while the near-term focus is on survival, longer-term environmental headwinds remain a challenge.
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Delve deeper and learn about the investment strategies that set us apart
Investing to Protect Biodiversity
7th July 2021 For most of us living in cities or urban areas, wildlife can seem like an afterthought. However, the reality is we are all highly dependent on nature and its essential services like clean water and pollination.
More than Meets the Eye
7th June 2021 These days, technology can sometimes seem like magic. Activities like ordering a taxi can occur in the blink of an eye. But scratch below the surface and we see that for this seemingly simple transaction to occur, countless technologies are at work.
Identifying Sustainable Rising Stars in Total Return Investing
2nd June 2021 As ESG data becomes more granular, integrating sustainability with fixed income investing has become even more viable. This has given us confidence to integrate sustainability with our Total Return strategy – a flexible, global, and non-benchmarked approach to fixed income investing.
Sustainable Thematic Opportunities in a Post-COVID World
31st May 2021 Over a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, it is clear that a strong, vaccine-driven recovery is now unfolding around the world. It is also evident that the pandemic has permanently altered many facets of our society, ranging from health and lifestyle, to the economy.
Navigating Chinese Equities in 2021
17th May 2021 For Chinese equity markets, 2021 began with an acceleration of the strong performance of late 2020, followed by a pullback after the Chinese Lunar New Year in mid-February. Following the recent correction, valuations for many companies are now attractive again and opportunities are getting ripe for stock pickers and active portfolio management.
Thematic Insights Future Health — Liquid Biopsy: A Game-Changer to Detect and Monitor Cancer
April 2021 One of the main priorities in cancer research is to detect cancer cells at an early stage, before they start to spread. A novel and revolutionary approach, known as liquid biopsy, which requires only a blood sample, is leading the way.
Thematic Insights Tech Disruptors — Semiconductor Manufacturing: The Battle over Tech Supremacy
April 2021 The semiconductor equipment sector, which produces highly complex machines needed to manufacture chips, has found itself in the centre of a brewing political storm between the US and China.
Investment Update: All China Equities
April 2021 China is expected to become the world’s largest economy in only a few years from now. Thus, the most important question for equity investors is not whether they should allocate to China, but how to best position themselves in this rapidly growing and changing economy.
Climate Opportunities - Fighting Climate Change One Cow at a Time
March 2021 If cows were a country, they would be the third-largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world. What types of innovative solutions can tackle this challenge? Watch the video to learn more.
Semiconductors: Driving the Future of Cars
March 2021 Over the last few months, a global shortage of semiconductor chips has forced several carmakers, including Volkswagen and Ford, to halt production, hurting their efforts to recover from depressed demand on the back of COVID-19 lockdowns. The crisis has shone a spotlight on the auto industry’s growing reliance on chips, and the implications for both industries.
Investment Spotlight: Future-proofing Investments Against Climate Change
March 2021 Today, we see growing impetus from more countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. In this inevitable transition to a low-carbon future, there will be many winners and losers. It is crucial for investors to ensure that their portfolios are resilient and “future-proof” against climate change.
Sustainable Equity Global Thematic Investors Update
February 2021 There are three major issues facing equity investors today: Does the US political environment change anything? Is there any value in growth? Where will we see permanent change and are there any emerging themes worth looking at? Read more and learn about our 2021 outlook.
Developments in Sustainable Investing
9th February 2021 2020 was a landmark year for J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management, as we further strengthened our commitments to sustainable investing.
FAB Five 1st Quarter 2021 Investment Ideas
2nd February 2021 With its ups and downs, 2020 turned out to be an exciting year for investors. We are hopeful that 2021 will bring us some normalisation, with the US election behind us and the roll-out of vaccine programmes.
Analog Semiconductors: Key Enabler of the EV Revolution
29th January 2021 The world is at the beginning of an electric vehicle revolution, with volumes expected to rise significantly over the coming years. This transformation will likely be followed by one in the autonomous driving space.
Climate-Proofing Your Investments
25th January 2021 In the inevitable transition to a low-carbon future, there will be many winners and losers. Some companies are already doing better than others. We group them into Climate Pledgers and Green Champions. Learn more in the latest video.
Thematic Insights Future Health — Transition to Home: The New Hub of Healthcare
21st January 2021 Home-based health players provide a multitude of healthcare services to chronically ill patients directly at home. COVID-19 revealed several shortcomings in the healthcare system, particularly hospitals and skilled nursing facilities as the central hubs of care delivery.
Investment Spotlight: COVID-19, Climate Change and the Implications for Thematic Investing
18th November 2020 Nearly a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, some clear implications for thematic investing can already be observed. In many ways, the risks and challenges posed by the pandemic are similar to those presented by another global threat – climate change. Both crises will change our world permanently, and in this Spotlight we explore some of the long-term fundamental shifts happening in our world, as well as what this means for thematic investors.
Thematic Insights Tech Disruptors — Warehouse Automation: Reshaping Logistics
October 2020 Demand for warehouse automation equipment is expected to grow strongly over the coming years, driven by several megatrends such as e-commerce, urbanization and sustainability.
Thematic Insights Future Health — Improved Hygiene: Killing Germs, Saving Lives
October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted demand for hygiene and personal protection equipment (PPE) products in hospital, elderly care and private settings.
Investment Spotlight: The Value of Sustainable Investing For High Quality Bonds
September 2020 Today’s markets are often characterized by uncertainties and volatility, and it remains increasingly challenging to search for yield. In such times, it becomes even more crucial to find a stable and resilient source of returns that can weather storms in the financial markets.
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Repositioning of Water to Green Planet
10th February 2021 JSS Sustainable Asset Management is proud to announce the launch of the Green Planet strategy, which is a natural progression of its commitment towards building a sustainable future, while generating attractive returns.
New Climate Strategy Launched
27th January 2021 JSS Sustainable Asset Management launches a new climate investment strategy that taps into the vast opportunities arising from the global transition to a low-carbon future.
J. Safra Sarasin Asset Management Funds Awarded Highest Rating by FNG
26th November 2020 We are pleased to announce that all four funds, for which we have submitted, have been awarded the highest possible rating by FNG (Forum Nachhaltige Geldanlagen)
New Fund Supporting Sustainable Development Goals
3rd November 2020 Bank J. Safra Sarasin has launched a compelling public equities solution offering investors a way to support the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while also generating long-term returns.
Launch of New Responsible India Fund
30th September 2020 Bank J. Safra Sarasin recently launched the JSS Responsible Equity – India fund, which seeks to capture attractive opportunities in the country’s fast-growing economy.
Awarded Highest Score In UN PRI Assessment Report
2nd September 2020 Bank J. Safra Sarasin has been awarded A+, the highest score, by the UN-supported Principles of Responsible Investment (PRI), for its overall Sustainability Strategy and Governance.
Ranked #1 Across Responsible Investment Themes in Switzerland
3rd June 2020 We are pleased to announce that Bank J. Safra Sarasin is ranked #1 in Switzerland and #17 worldwide by ShareAction in their 2020 ranking of the world’s largest asset managers across responsible investment themes.
Climate Pledge Launched
15th May 2020 Bank J. Safra Sarasin is a founding signatory of the Principles for Responsible Banking and the Principles of Responsible Investing and is committed to contribute to achieving society’s goals as expressed in the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement.
Launch of New Healthcare Fund
4th May 2020 Bank J. Safra Sarasin recently launched the JSS Sustainable Equity – Future Health fund, which seeks to capture opportunities from the dynamic shifts in the health landscape.