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MACRO RESEARCH
March 2021

Global View Q2 2021

GlobalView
The global economy is set to improve markedly in the second half of 2021 as the negative impact of the COVID pandemic fades and the global services sector comes back online. We expect inflation to move higher as central banks are more accommodative than in previous cycles. The debate about the timeline for the removal of monetary support will intensify throughout 2021 and lead to more volatility in risk markets. We continue to expect further upside for global bond yields over the next 6 to 12 months, most pronounced in the Dollar markets. The US dollar should resume its downward trend later in the year as the rest of the world catches up with strong US growth momentum. Gold will likely consolidate in 2021, as we anticipate further upward pressure on US real interest rates. Lastly, we expect equity markets to move higher in 2021 as earnings expectations continue to improve. However, the repricing in fixed income markets will lead to increased volatility, with market upside limited in the short term by a change in sector leadership.
Please find our Q2 2021 Global View publication, with detailed forecasts for all asset classes.
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