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MACRO RESEARCH
March 2022

Global View: 2nd Quarter 2022

  
Global View Q2 2022
The new year has not started quite as we imagined:record high inflation and COVID infection rates have dented consumer confidence and dampened the mood in financial markets, even before Russia invaded Ukraine. The outbreak of the war, however, has created even more uncertainty. Not only does it bring unimaginable suffering to the regions being fought over, but it also presents a level of threat to European stability that has not been experienced for decades – on a continent where most people have taken for granted that international conflicts would no longer be resolved through military action. The consequences are immense – even if it is currently impossible to estimate how long the fighting will continue. Over the medium term, the conflict will lead to higher defence spending by European countries and greater willingness to finance this through government debt. It will also encourage many countries to reduce their dependence on Russian energy and other raw materials, while Russia will in turn try to become less reliant on western technology, the financial system and the US dollar. This will lead to further rifts across the European continent. In the short term, the effects of sanctions will be critical, along with ensuring a secure supply of raw materials and energy. The sharp hike in oil and gas prices is already putting enormous pressure on low-income families in particular.
Please find our full “Global View: 2nd Quarter 2022” publications, downloadable in English, French, German and Spanish, with detailed forecasts for all asset classes.
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